list item discrepency

Hello,

I have a list that has a 5000 list view threshold.  When I go to list settings, the threshold bar indicates that I have about 8000 items which exceeds the threshold.  However, the list only has about 4500 items.  I have determined that 4500 is an accurate count of the items by configuring the view via "count" and "totals".  I have also removed all recycled items but I the number of items in the threshold bar in list settings still shows 8000 items. 

Any insight would be very much appreciated.

Thank you,

Rumi